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The market looks highly volatile until the next US election in 2024

The market looks highly volatile until the next US election in 2024


Category : Knowledge Center

Introduction:  At present, we can witness that due to elections next year, which are in India and the US, we are expecting that in the second half of CY23 there can be a twist and turn in the direction of the market, and the main factor would be the monsoon this year. But now, the present situation is indicating a different scenario, as there are high chances of a global financial crisis, which is likely to happen any time before the US election, which is in October 2024. At present, the US Fed is thinking of peaking its rate of interest around 5.75–6.0 percent and that by the end of October this year (CY23). For the time being, experts are keeping the geopolitical risk at a constant level. According to the expert, there is a high likelihood that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 50 basis points in their upcoming meeting on March 22, 2023. They also believed that this will make it challenging for global stock markets to consistently rise, and the market will likely remain rangebound until at least July 2023. Looking ahead, experts warn of the possibility of a Global Financial Crisis 2.0 before the US Election in October 2024, as the current US Fed rates are like pre-2009 levels when the world last experienced a financial crisis. Therefore, they suggest that the probability of a recession is higher in the second half of CY2023.

Federal Reserve on their rate hike statement:  The experts are noting the higher-than-expected US inflation rate of 6.4% and the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate of 2%. They also predict that the US Fed interest rate will reach a peak of 5.75-6% by the end of October 2023, assuming no major changes in geopolitical risks.

Will market be volatile if rate hike remains constant:   The experts are predicting that interest rates will likely remain high for a longer period. The experts also believe, based on Mr. Powell’s statement, that there is a high likelihood of a 50-basis point increase in the Federal Reserve's interest rates at their upcoming meeting on March 22, 2023. They also suggest that a consistent rise in global stock markets will be difficult in this scenario and that the market will likely remain rangebound until at least July 2023.

Possibility of a recession in the US if rate hike is around these levels:   The experts say that they had previously spoken about the possibility of stagflation in the US economy in July 2020, and they now believe that this has become a reality. They also expressed their opinion that there is a high likelihood of a Global Financial Crisis 2.0 occurring before the US election in October 2024. The speaker attributes this prediction to the fact that the current US Fed rates are like the pre-2009 levels when the world experienced a financial crisis, and thus, the probability of a recession in the second half of CY2023 looks higher.

Will inflation in India stay elevated for second half of CY23: The experts say that India's January inflation was higher than expected, and there is speculation that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may likely to continue to raise interest rates. The speaker also observes that historically, Indian Government Bonds have had a premium of 2–3% yield over US Federal Reserve Rates. Based on the current scenario, the speaker predicts that the 10-year G-sec yield in India may peak at 8.2–8.4% by October 2023 and that inflation for February 2023 in India will be around 5.9–6.2%.

Experts view on Adani Stocks:  The experts say that Adani Group has made progress in getting its shares unpledged from various banks, which is a positive development for the company as it has been a major overhang. However, they also emphasize the importance of keeping a close watch on the company's quarterly results going forward, implying that there may still be fundamental risks associated with investing in these stocks. The speaker also suggests that only investors with a very high-risk appetite should consider investing in these stocks at their current levels.

Key impede for the Indian equity market:   The experts suggest that the Indian markets may face several headwinds, such as a changing geopolitical power shift, a SEBI report on Adani Group, and the US Fed's focus on higher interest rates. These factors could increase the risk for the Nifty50 and lead to a retest of the June 2022 lows in CY2023. However, despite these challenges, experts present a scenario that maintains a bullish view on Indian banks in the medium to long term. They also suggest a preference for large-cap stocks over mid-cap ones until July 2023. Overall, we can suggest a cautious approach towards Indian markets in the short term while maintaining optimism for the medium to long term.

Experts view on Banking Stock:  Experts suggest the banking sector has been showing signs of growth since July 2022, and from there it has witnessed significant growth, with private banks up by almost 20 percent and PSU banks up by 40-80 percent. Despite this growth, experts maintain their bullish stance on both the PSU and private banks, even at current levels. This suggests that the experts are optimistic about the prospects of the banking sector and believes that it still has room for growth. Overall, experts have a positive outlook towards the banking sector, as they have confidence in its ability to continue its growth trajectory.

Conclusion: The prediction for the market for going up is seems to get faded due to peak on the rate of interest by 5.75 to 6% and that to by the end of this October 2023 but still we can keep banking sectors in the focus as the growth indication seems be only in this sector so start your investment journey into banking stocks with Libord Group as we are having a term of research expert to guide and also to suggest you with best investment strategies as we at Libord value your hard earned money.

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